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Stop the press - For the first time ever I'm agreeing with Pete..... 50 billion was enough to give confidence a kick in the teeth, but wasn't enough to ease liquidity fears...... we are all fecked for at least 6 months, but more likely 3 years. Changes in the mortgage market today mean that you will pay the same rate for a deal now that you would before the rate cut.... I can't ever remember that hapenning before. Basically LIBOR has developed a life of its own and is now beyond the control of central banks
Stop the press - For the first time ever I'm agreeing with Pete.....
I knew you'd come round eventually FB
The question remains tho - 40% or 50% drop in house prices over the next 3 years
In all seriousness tho my firm is already feeling the effects of this credit crunch with some job losses at senior level announced this week, and basically aren't going to meet their financial targets.
The question remains tho - 40% or 50% drop in house prices over the next 3 years
In all seriousness tho my firm is already feeling the effects of this credit crunch with some job losses at senior level announced this week, and basically aren't going to meet their financial targets.
No bonus for me at the end of this tax-year
Pete I think we can figure the amount of drop to some extent on the basis of rental returns. Investors have been accepting 3-4% returns on property for the last few years despite paying 5 +% to borrow.
Now that there will be no capital gains investors will leave the market until the return is at least a few percent above the ir. So 7% + and since rental values are not going to increase that could mean drops of up to 40%. But these massive drops will only really apply to the investors favourite past time ie the 2 bed flat. So those people who invested in £300k+ flats that only return £1200/month rent (there are 10000s of these in London) are in for a nasty shock.
The question remains tho - 40% or 50% drop in house prices over the next 3 years
In all seriousness tho my firm is already feeling the effects of this credit crunch with some job losses at senior level announced this week, and basically aren't going to meet their financial targets.
No bonus for me at the end of this tax-year
20% tops, but given the raft of statistics available that could really be anything. Maybe 40% in London, 25% in NI and probably 15% acros the rest of the country. The important thing to remember is that a 25 % drop in Northern Ireland only takes us back to January prices, while a 2% drop in Doncaster takes us back to 2003 prices..... ANyway - You are still a doom monger
The tricky part about that is that most, if not all of them, have no clue what thier exposure actually is.
Of course they do. Most if not all have been perfecting their economic models for the last 4 years in order that they could get Basel II certified and make a large percentage of their liquid assets available for investment/lending.
As a matter of interest, can anyone tell me real reason why Flash flogged off half our gold reserves at the lowest available price? It has been said that the overall effect of this was worse than that of "Black Wednesday".
As a matter of interest, can anyone tell me real reason why Flash flogged off half our gold reserves at the lowest available price? It has been said that the overall effect of this was worse than that of "Black Wednesday".
Les
Here's your answer to that 8 year old story Les - he's an idiot, but not as dim as the Swiss!
